AGP Executive Report
Last update: 2 hours agoHorn of Africa Security Spiral: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s north and rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions are reopening a dangerous fault line as the Red Sea crisis worsens, with Houthis expanding control near Bab el-Mandeb and raising corridor stakes for Djibouti and the region. Djibouti Fuel Corridor Upgrade: Ethiopia and Djibouti, with Dangote, are pushing a $660m refined-products pipeline from Damerjog to Dewele plus major storage, aiming to cut fuel movement time from days to about one day. Afreximbank Infrastructure Push in Djibouti: Afreximbank backs a second phase of the Damerjog jetty/pipeline and industrial road upgrades, positioning Djibouti as a deeper regional energy and logistics hub. Dangote Refinery Breaks Ground (Lamu): Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000 bpd East Africa refinery in Kenya is set for 40 months, with big knock-on effects for shipping, manufacturing and logistics across the corridor. Shipping Risk and Costs: Hapag-Lloyd is adjusting Red Sea sailings as Bab el-Mandeb risk drives war-risk premiums and forces Ethiopia’s Djibouti-linked supply chain to price in uncertainty. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s president is touring Ethiopia and Djibouti amid plans and denials around Ethiopian troop posture, while mediation efforts continue around Yemen’s escalation. Maritime Incident (Somalia): Puntland retook the MT Honour 25 after pirates killed five crew members, underscoring ongoing security risks for regional shipping.
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